The AAPL ‘Keynote Index Fund’ January 1, 2008
Posted by James Webster in : apple, finance , trackbackMatt Haughey of A Whole Lotta Nothing wondered about the effect of the MacWorld Expo keynote on the value of AAPL and whether a strategy of buying the stock a day before the Stevenote and selling it a day after would result in a positive return. He crunched the numbers and put them up for all to see over at Keynote Index Fund…
Overall, for the entire past decade, the numbers are 1.2% growth for 24 hours and 2.2% growth for 48 hours.
However if you just bought and held AAPL for the past decade the numbers are a little different…
Of course, if you held the $10,000 of shares bought in 1997, your investment would be worth $525,187 today (with AAPL around $200/share today, counting two 2-for-1 splits).
So as a day-trading strategy ‘go long in AAPL for the Stevenote’ might be a reasonably reliable course of action to pursue minor short-term profits. But Bogleheads and Warren Buffet fans will be pleased that buy-and-hold still beats day-trading, for AAPL at least!
UPDATE: Actually this reminds me of an idea floated by Richard Giles of Wired Magazine as a tech market barometer; the number of pages worth of advertisements in Wired magazine appears to be correlated with trends in the NASDAQ major index and leads it by a few months. I just bought this month’s Wired and it appears to be a little thin!
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